Category Archives

87 Articles

Weather Blog

New research upends theory on tornado formation

Posted on

I’ll admit it! I get excited when new research has the potential of turning the current most widely accepted theory on its head. Pushing the boundaries of our knowledge is what science is about!

One example: AGU meeting provides new insights

At the annual meeting of American Geophysical Union (AGU) in Washington, D.C., on December 10-14, researchers presented some exciting news: Tornadoes may form from the bottom up, according to a small sample of recently studied tornadic storms, including the deadly May 31, 2013, El Reno tornado. That particular twister was witnessed, photographed, and videotaped by more scientists and citizens than most tornadoes because it happened in a heavily populated area. Storm chasers and tornado researchers were present. Rapid scan mobile radar was deployed and sampled the storm every 16 seconds at heights lower than are possible for standard stationary radar and allowed data to be collected much closer to the ground.

When the researchers combined the mobile radar data and the collected still and video images, they were able to see evidence that the tornado formed from the ground up. The current, most widely accepted theory has been that tornadoes form from the top down. Of course, the reason researchers continue to study tornadoes in the field is scientists know there is still much to be learned and understood about tornado formation.

The small sample set used in this study included five tornadoes total. All seemed to form from the bottom up. The challenge now is to collect more data from more tornadoes. Part of the scientific process is being able to repeat the experiment in the same way and find the same results. Repeatability is difficult with tornadoes since we still don’t know why some storms form a tornado and some don’t. That fact makes it hard to deploy mobile radar near the perfect storms.

Learning how tornadoes form will help scientists in their quest for understanding why they form. Knowing why they form will help lengthen warning times and cut down on false alarms, which will in turn save lives. A meteorologist’s ultimate goal is the protection of life and property. This study appears to be a new step in that direction.

Map courtesy of the National Weather Service
Weather Blog

Breaking records already

Posted on

This past weekend’s winter storm is one for the history books in the Triangle. The snowfall records at the Raleigh-Durham International Airport for both December 9 and 10 were smashed with seven inches on Sunday and 1.9 inches on Monday. Our high temperature on Monday tied for the third lowest maximum (coldest high) temperature for the date at 34 degrees Fahrenheit. As of this morning, RDU’S official snowfall total from the last two days stands at 8.9 inches, which is 8.7 inches more than normal for the season so far.

The average annual snowfall for the Triangle is about 5 to 7 inches depending on the source data. With just one storm, we surpassed that quite early in the season. Does that mean it’s over – we’ve had our winter, and the rest of the season will be warmer and dry? Of course not. In fact, climatology tells us that our best chance for snow and ice storms comes between mid-January and mid-March. The reason we easily broke two days’ worth of snowfall records last weekend is simply because we rarely get measurable snow in early December.

If you look at the Climate Prediction Center’s monthly map published on November 30 for December, you’ll see its climatologists predicted above-average chances for warmer-than-normal temperatures for most of the country this month. While we do have a hole to dig out of this week, it does look like we’ll see closer to average temperatures starting this weekend.

December cpc map
Courtesy of National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center. The map shows above-average chances (in orange shading) for most of the country to experience warmer-than-normal temperatures during the month of December.

Unfortunately, heavy rain is possible with the storm system that will move through Friday and Saturday. With the ground saturated from melted snow from last weekend’s storm, flooding is likely across the region if we experience the couple inches of rain forecasted by the Weather Prediction Center.

After a brief warm-up through the next couple of weeks, signals in the global oscillations that meteorologists often watch are pointing to another cool down around New Year’s which could lead into another colder-than-average January. Only time will tell if that prediction will play out. However, even in an average January, additional snow and ice are possible. It is winter after all.

Regular readers of this blog know I do not put a lot of stock in long-range forecasts. However, in the last year, I’ve learned more about those global oscillations mentioned above and why they are worth paying attention to, especially in winter. El Nino/La Nina is the most famous of them, but there are others that are just as important to our seasonal predictions. I’ll continue to monitor all of them in an effort to see which seems to be the most dominant with respect to this winter’s outcomes and report back as the season goes on.

Weather Blog

It’s NC Winter Weather Preparedness Week

Posted on

This week is North Carolina’s Winter Weather Preparedness Week – time to transition our thought processes from autumn and hurricane season to winter safety.

National Weather Service Definitions

Blizzard Warning – Severe winter weather is expected within the next 12 to 36 hours or is occurring – including whiteout conditions. Do not travel.

Winter Storm Warning – Dangerous winter weather is expected within the next 12 to 36 hours or is occurring. Considerable travel problems are expected.

Winter Weather Advisory – Potentially dangerous winter weather is expected within the next 12 to 36 hours or is occurring. Travel difficulties are expected.

Snow Squall – An intense, but limited duration period of moderate to heavy snowfall, accompanied by strong, gusty surface winds and possibly lightning. Snowfall rates may be significant.

The absolute worst-case scenario – one that we rarely see in the Triangle – is a blizzard. High winds whip heavy snow around and lower visibility to nearly zero. Nobody should be on the road in a blizzard. Your inability to see what’s in front of you means that other people can’t see what’s in front of them either. A bunch of snow-blind drivers on the road will only lead to misery.

Typically, around here, we experience winter storm warnings and winter weather advisories. The warning is issued when road conditions are expected to deteriorate to the point where travel is hazardous and should be avoided. The advisory is usually issued when some icy and slushy spots are expected, but it may not be widespread or long lived. Travel is still discouraged, but if you must travel, you should slow down, leave extra stopping space between you and the car ahead of you, and avoid any distractions while driving. (These are good driving rules in general, but especially in hazardous conditions.)

A snow squall is a dangerous situation because of the white-out conditions it creates. We don’t see this situation often in the Triangle, but under the right circumstances, it’s possible. If snow squall warning is issued for your area, stay put. It will only last up to three hours. Once it is over, you can check road conditions to determine if it’s safe to travel.

Driving prepared

You’ve probably heard the advice to keep your tank over half-full during the winter. This practice helps avoid problems caused when condensation freezes and collects into icy blockages in your fuel lines. It also helps ensure you’ll have plenty of fuel to run your car for heat if you are stranded somewhere.

Cold weather can affect your car battery by slowing down the chemical reactions that take place inside it. According to AAA’s Automotive Research Center, at 32 degrees Fahrenheit, your car battery can lose about 35% of its strength, and it gets worse as the temperature drops.

AAA suggests using a quarter to check your tires’ tread. “When the top of Washington’s head is exposed, the tread depth is 4/32 inches or less and it’s time to start shopping for new tires.” Keep your tires properly inflated as well. Always use a reliable tire gauge and the manufacturer’s recommended pressure when you check them regularly.

Another useful tip that I’ve needed firsthand is to keep cat litter, or something similar, in your car to use on the road for traction if your car gets stuck. It’s also a good idea to keep a blanket, water, and some snacks in the car for the same reason. If you get stranded and are low on fuel, you’ll need a way to stay warm. Keep your cell phone charged. Charging it in the car while the engine isn’t running adds to battery drain.

Living prepared

Winter weather preparedness at home is similar to hurricane preparedness in some ways. You’ll want to have your emergency kit ready. If the power goes out, having a way to stay warm in your home – a generator, a fire place and dry wood, etc. Battery or kinetically-powered lanterns and a NOAA weather radio will be helpful, too. If you don’t have a fireplace or a generator, have a backup place to stay in case the power goes out for an extended period of time.

Checking the forecast often

In our part of North Carolina, winter weather forecasts are dynamic to say the least. They usually change with every model run. The mountains to our west and the coast to our east create the possibility for cold air damming (CAD) scenarios and coastal lows/Nor’easters. Both can bring anything from rain to ice to snow to the Triangle.

Whether we experience rain or frozen precipitation with a CAD scenario depends on how far east the cold air that’s damming up against the mountains extends and how deep the cold layer is. The farther east and deeper the layer, the more likely we see snow. A shallow cold layer may bring sleet or freezing rain. If the cold air stays to our west, we’ll likely just see rain if anything.

The opposite is true with a coastal storm. The proximity of the storm to the coastline and how quickly the cold air moves into our area determine what kind of precipitation we see.

In both cases, the details of the forecast are difficult to nail down until the storm actually takes shape. The forecast models tend to suffer from low resolution more than a few days in advance. The ingredients needed to create the winter weather may not really fall into place as the models predict. Sometimes they do, but sometimes the cold air doesn’t arrive until after the precipitation ends. Other times, the air at the surface is drier than expected and the precipitation takes longer to reach the surface, limiting precipitation amounts. Don’t assume the winter weather forecast you see today will be the situation that plays out two days from now.

winter storm definitions

Graphic courtesy of the National Weather Service

Weather Blog

Facts and uncertainty about Earth’s climate

Posted on

Fact: Earth’s average annual temperature is rising.

Fact: There was a considerable slow-down, referred to as a pause, in Earth’s warming trend from about the year 2000 through about 2012.

Fact: Sea level overall is rising – although not uniformly around the world due to the rising and sinking of land masses.

sea level rise

This chart, courtesy of EPA.gov/climate-indicators, shows the global average absolute sea level change from 1880-2015. Absolute sea level change takes into account the rising and falling of land in locations where those events are occurring.

Fact: Scientists are pretty sure the sun is heading into a minimum with respect to sunspot activity, which is leading to the cooling of the outermost part of Earth’s atmosphere. How long it will last and how much it will affect our surface weather is yet to be determined.

Fact: Using air bubbles trapped in ice cores, scientists have concluded that in the past 400,000 years, the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere has not been has high as it is now (since the about 1950). That is not to say “never,” but only to say as long as we can look back using the ice cores as a proxy.

Fact: There is still a fair amount of uncertainty regarding how long-term (decadal and multi-decadal) oscillations in the oceans and atmosphere influence the average global temperature of the planet.

Fact: There are also things that are difficult to account for in modeling future scenarios that can affect the global temperature including volcanic activity, future energy use, and solar activity.

In order to have an intellectually honest and open conversation about climate change, one must consider all the facts. Of course, the ones listed above are not all the facts. They are the ones I can think up off the top of my head on a Monday morning after a long, holiday weekend.

Another requirement for honest discourse is embracing the unknowns and unanswered questions. This is where many people falter. Not knowing the answers can be scary. Knowing that finding the answers may prove the current hypotheses and theories wrong may be even scarier. It’s easier to use the word consensus and disparage those bold enough to ask questions than to face the possible reality that there is still so much that we don’t know we don’t know. (Yes, I meant to repeat those three words.)

Here’s another fact to which as a member of the media I can attest: the reporters, producers, and publishers of the world are the gatekeepers of critical information. In an age when that information must be conveyed in the shortest possible manner such as five to eight-second soundbites or tweets of a couple hundred characters or less, it’s not possible to tell the whole story, or even a fraction of the story, when it comes to complex scientific research. Anyone who tells you otherwise is selling you advertising or selling you to their advertisers.

In this blog, I do my best to present thought-provoking information when I’m not simply explaining the weather. It’s up to the readers to do the thinking and to seek out more information if they feel the need. I am always happy to point to my resources through hyperlinks and answers. I’m also always happy to seek out new resources as time permits. Feel free to send questions through my Facebook page or to my email: niki@kingsdalemedia.com.

Weather Blog

Thanksgiving Day weather records

Posted on

Raise your hand if you remember a warm and rainy Thanksgiving here. How about one that was sunny, but cold? Can you remember one when a few snowflakes flittered through the air? In the 20-plus years I’ve lived in this area, I think I’ve seen all three types of Thanksgiving Days. So, what’s normal for us?

To answer this question, I looked at the North Carolina Climate Office’s Holiday Climatology page for Thanksgiving. There are a couple of things to remember in this case: first, the actual date of Thanksgiving changes yearly since it is celebrated on the fourth Thursday in November. Sometimes that date falls pretty early in the month as it does this year. Sometimes it’s closer to the end of the month. That change makes it difficult to use the 30-year averages that meteorologists typically use when talking about “normal” weather for a specific date.

The second thing to keep in mind is that Wake Forest, Creedmoor, and Butner – the three locations I usually focus my forecasting on – do not have long-lived official weather recording sites used by the Climate Office. So, I have to look at Raleigh and Oxford as proxies for our towns.

That being said, here are some historical Thanksgiving weather data to use as trivia during your family gathering:

At North Carolina State University in Raleigh, records have been kept since 1892. Our warmest Thanksgiving on record there was November 28, 1985 with a low of 62 degrees Fahrenheit and a high of 78 degrees. Our coldest on record was November 26, 1970, when residents woke to a low of 17 degrees and only saw a high of 41. November 26, 1992 was the wettest with 1.97 inches of rain.

Typically, Raleigh’s minimum temperature for Thanksgiving ranges from 30.5 to 46 degrees, and the maximum runs from 51 to 64.5 degrees. So, that coldest Raleigh Thanksgiving mentioned above was downright frigid with the highest temperature for the day being in the range of our typical morning low.

The weather records for Oxford have been kept in two different places. The first location served for the years 1920 through 1994. The second location picked up the records from March 1994 through the present.

The warmest Thanksgiving Day in either location occurred November 25, 2004, with a high temperature of 69 degrees and a low of 58. The coldest was November 23, 2000, with a high of 42 degrees and a low of 24. Back on November 28, 1963, 1.2 inches of rain fell in Oxford, making it the town’s wettest Thanksgiving Day on record.

Interestingly, the range for typical maximum and minimum temperatures vary by location with the older, no-longer-used site trending much warmer than the new one. The difference may be in the environment surrounding the instrument site locations – perhaps rural versus in town. It may also be in the type of instruments used. I will admit that I don’t know. However, I will give the ranges for the currently used site because I assume the location and instruments are more accurate given what we’ve learned over the years about proper placement and calibration.

Oxford’s typical maximum temperature range since 1994 is 45 to 60.5 degrees Fahrenheit. The range for the typical morning low is 27.5 to 41 degrees.

 

No matter the weather this year or where you’re spending the day, have a wonderful Thanksgiving!

Weather Blog

Giving thanks in a changing climate

Posted on

Our national day of gratitude is next Thursday. In Plimoth, New England – now known as Plymouth, Massachusetts – almost 400 years ago, the Pilgrims and the native Wampanoag tribe had a feast to celebrate the colony’s first successful harvest. The year was 1621, and the climate was cold. In fact, that year was just decades within range of the peak of the Little Ice Age.

There’s quite a bit of disagreement within the scientific community about exactly when the Little Ice Age began, but most agree that the coldest period within it started around 1650. There’s also some disagreement on the cause of the chilly climactic period. Some point to heightened volcanic activity, some to solar minima, and some to a change in the Earth’s orbit. It’s quite possible that many things contributed to the centuries-long cold spell. After all, climate is a complicated thing.

One fact seems certain: humans had to adapt or die in the face of a cooling planet. The Little Ice Age has been blamed for famine, changes in agricultural practices, and wars (indirectly). For example, when old ways of keeping warm weren’t enough, fireplace hoods and enclosed stoves were developed to make more efficient use of heat. Fossil fuels became more widely used for power toward the end of the period in the 17th and 18th centuries.

Can you imagine life in a strange, new world without our modern-day conveniences when the earth was at least one-degree Celsius cooler? Farm animals struggled to survive long, cold winters. The growing season was shorter. Disease was rampant.

In Plymouth, after two years of struggling, and with help from the local Native American tribe, the settlers finally had a successful harvest and something to celebrate. So, they had a community feast and gave thanks to the Creator for that success.

A tradition was born, and we still celebrate it today. Now we have accessible technology and more options for heating our homes in the winter and cooling them in the summer. We have flat-top stoves, microwaves, and television. We import our cranberries from Massachusetts to North Carolina, raise turkeys on gigantic farms, and wear synthetic fleece to keep the chill off when walking to our cars. Even on our worst days, we have so much for which to be thankful.

Our ability – humanity’s as a whole – to overcome the Little Ice Age by creating new technologies and adapting our lifestyles is the reason I don’t feel hopeless when thinking about the current state of the climate. When the going gets tough, we find new ways to get going. For example, we take old technology like wind mills and improve upon their efficiency and scale. We create new technology such as solar panels and graphene. And in the face of necessity, we find ways to make them more accessible and economical. We must! Because now, as always, humanity needs to adapt to a changing climate.

Weather Blog

Might it snow in North Carolina in November?

Posted on

Every time it thunders in the winter, at least three people feel the need to remind me of the old wives’ tale that it means snow within a week. Of course, then I feel the need to remind them all it really means is we’re in an active weather pattern, and it might snow within a week anyway because it’s winter. There is some statistical evidence showing snow is slightly more likely after thunder in winter, but I don’t hang my hat on it as a forecaster.

Meteorological winter starts on December 1 and runs through the end of February. Astronomical winter starts on the winter solstice, which is December 21. So, either way you look at the seasons, November is late fall.

In North Carolina, November tends to bring moderately cooler temperatures and some wild swings in the weather. For example, today’s 30-year (1981-2010) average high temperature is 68 degrees, and the average low is 44 degrees. However, the record high on November 4 is 84 degrees and was set in 1946, and the record low is 25 degrees set in 1966.

Typically, precipitation in November falls as rain. Occasionally, that rain comes with high straight-line winds and tornadoes. Rarely does the precipitation fall as snow, sleet or freezing rain, but it has happened.

There are two November events on record in the State Climate Office’s Winter Storm Database. The first was a two-storm event that was combined into one report and took place from November 9 through November 12, 1968. Between a half-inch and 1.5 inches of total snowfall was reported in Wake County during those dates.

The second earliest snowfall reported in Wake County happened November 18-19, 2000. Up to two inches of snow accumulation on grassy surfaces were reported across the area with that one.

What about this year?

Over the next two weeks, the Climate Prediction Center is predicting above-average chances for cooler-than-normal temperatures and above-normal precipitation. For one run of the GFS this morning, I noticed a slight chance of snow early on the morning of Tuesday, November 13. So, my answer is that’s it’s possible. It doesn’t seem very probable at this writing, though, because the very next model run took the snow line a little farther north to our border counties.

Climatology is working against us, but I probably don’t need to remind anyone that climatology was against Florence hitting our coast. Our historical record is relatively short when it comes to these things, and just because it doesn’t happen often doesn’t mean it can’t happen next week. It will be interesting to watch as the day approaches.

forecast map

One version of the GFS forecast model run on November 5, 2018, shows the potential for snow in north-central North Carolina early on November 13.

Weather Blog

Science creates opportunities for all

Posted on

I have a quote by Mark Cuban hanging in my office: “Creating opportunities means looking where others are not.” For me, it’s a reminder that instead of reinventing the wheel or using the same wheel everyone else is using, we need to look at alternative options to the wheel. That kind of innovation requires the systematic pursuit of knowledge, also known as science.

As a meteorologist, I often write about our pursuit of knowledge and advancements in technology with respect to atmospheric science, weather forecasting, and climate science in general. Sometimes, I branch out a little and write about how new technologies and improved understanding of current science can lead to adaptation and resilience in the face of climate change. That theme seems to be running through everything I’ve read so far this morning, and I feel the need to share a bit with my readers. Perhaps, it may spur some fresh ideas that could lead to new opportunities locally.

Pollution reduction and sustainability:

You might have heard the news that broke on Friday that Smithfield Farms has developed a way to turn hog waste into renewable natural gas. Much of the research and work on this manure-to-energy project was done in North Carolina, and the results will be felt nationally. By capturing biogas in covered digesters and processing it into a renewable energy source, Smithfield Foods will be reducing the greenhouse gas emissions of one of the largest hog farming operations in the country and making huge strides toward sustainability.

In other agricultural news, startups across the country are developing a new way to fertilize plants that will cut down on nitrogen-based pollutants that run off farmlands and make their ways into our streams, rivers, and oceans leading to toxic algal blooms. The idea is to use nitrogen-fixing bacteria to fertilize plants and in the long run eliminate the need for synthetically created fertilizers. By combining the bacteria and the seeds at planting time, the required fertilizer will be created at the root of the plant and in a more sustainable way. The technology isn’t perfect yet, but it’s coming along quickly.

Energy resilience and developing economies:

Nuclear power is an energy source that does not require the burning of fossil fuels. However, it has its own drawbacks including the potential for devastating nuclear reactor meltdowns and nuclear weapon proliferation. That’s old news. The new news is how energy technology startups are creating newer, potentially safer, smaller, and possibly less expensive nuclear reactors. A new generation of nuclear power plants appears to be on the horizon, which should lead to a diminished reliance on fossil fuels around the world.

While wind and solar energy use is still growing, it’s not doing so at a pace that will reach any world goals for cutting down on greenhouse gas emissions within the next few decades. New nuclear technologies may not become widespread any faster because they are still being developed and need to pass regulatory review. However, they could easily eventually overtake those renewable energy sources as an environmentally feasible form of spreading affordable and reliable energy around the globe.

Earth at night

Image Credit: NASA/NOAA
A composite image of the Earth at night shows well how the more developed regions are lit up by electrical means.

An opinion column on scientificamerican.com I read this morning also looks to natural gas as a source of inexpensive energy for developing nations, especially in parts of Africa and Asia where natural gas reserves are proven and yet mostly untapped. Inexpensive and reliable energy is necessary to help poverty-stricken regions develop economically.

Where there is no local source of natural gas, maybe the renewable natural gas created from hog farms could be a viable option with Smithfield Foods leading the way internationally.

At the source of all these innovations is science. Without curious minds willing to look at alternatives to the same old wheel everyone else is using, our technology and our societies would stagnate. Scientists are the key to creating opportunities for all, and it’s up to all of us to encourage the next generation of inquiring minds.

Weather Blog

Will Willa wash out our weekend?

Posted on

If you’ve been paying attention to the news over the last couple of days, you’ve probably heard about Willa, the major hurricane on track to hit western Mexico today. Yesterday, she was a category 5 storm on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. As of this writing, Willa is a category 4 storm and still extremely dangerous. She may weaken a bit more before making landfall, but as we’ve seen here with Florence, weaker winds do not mean the storm is any less dangerous. The Saffir-Simpson scale measures wind speed, not rainfall or storm surge.

Fortunately – for lack of a better word – Willa will be a fast-moving storm tracking across Mexico and falling apart as she crosses the Sierra Madre mountains. Unfortunately, she’ll cause flooding and landslides as she goes. What little is left of her vorticity – the rotation within the low-pressure system – and her moisture will cross southern Texas and move across the northern Gulf of Mexico to link up with a frontal zone on Thursday. Then, the whole mess will head across the extreme southeastern states and into the Atlantic to roll up the United States coastline toward eastern Canada.

Combining a sort of cold air damming situation in place over our region with a developing coastal low Thursday night and Friday will give us increasing rain chances late Thursday. By Friday and Saturday, rain will be likely, and it could be heavy at times while the storm moves along North Carolina’s coastline. Then as it pulls farther away on Sunday, we may see some breaks in the clouds, and the rain will become more scattered in nature.

Saturday forecast map

The forecast map from NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center for Saturday morning showing a developing low pressure system off the coast of North Carolina.

By Tuesday morning, the system will no longer be affecting us, but it will likely leave up to two inches of rain in its wake here in Wake Forest. Compared to other storms this year, that seems pretty mild, but it’s still enough to ruin outdoor plans on Friday and Saturday.

In addition to the clouds and rain, our temperatures will be well below normal through the period. Our 30-year average high for this week is around 71 degrees and our average low is in the upper 40s. By contrast, on Friday, depending on the track of the developing coastal low, our afternoon temperature may struggle to make it to 50 degrees. Saturday and Sunday should be a little warmer each day, but stay well below normal.

Weather Blog

Bypassing autumn?

Posted on

Do you know where your cozy gloves are? It’s mid-October and time to dig out the cooler-weather accessories. Somehow, we are going from sweat weather to sweater weather in just a matter of days. What happened to having a whole season of transitional weather?

It’s been kind of a strange year. Our winter temperatures set records for cold. Our spring settled in later than usual. Our summer had bouts of extended rainy periods and extended dry periods, and there seemed to be no middle ground. We saw the effects of two strong hurricanes within a few weeks of each other, and now we seem to be bypassing autumn, or at least experiencing an incredibly brief version of it. As one of my friends asked me on Facebook this morning, “When did fall and spring become a one-week season around here?”

The question made me think about what our average autumn looks like.

If we consider today’s 30-year averages – what meteorologists consider “normal” – our normal high temperature at Raleigh-Durham International Airport is 73° F, and our normal low is 50° F. Our forecast high for today is in the upper 70s and our low this morning was 58° F. So, today, we are running warmer than normal.

This week will be a transitional one as a cold front comes through and brings the dewpoints and air temperature way down by Thursday morning when our low could hit the lower 40s. By Monday, we could be seeing lower 30s for the morning low temperature. Yet, Monday’s forecast low is happening about the time we might expect it. According to the interactive map on plantmaps.com, the average first frost dates for Wake Forest are in the range of October 21 through October 31. Monday is October 22.

first frost dates

Plantmaps.com‘s average first frost map for NC shows October 21-31 being our date range for Wake Forest and the surrounding countryside.

According to the North Carolina Climate Office, September was our third-warmest on record. “We haven’t seen a September that warm in almost a century; our only two warmer Septembers were in 1921 and 1925!” Our warm summer extended into early fall, and by many accounts, overstayed its welcome.

The first weeks of October were also warmer than normal. As I said, this week will provide our transitional period, and then, according to the long-range models and the Climate Prediction Center, next week we head into colder-than-normal territory. Those unusually cool temperatures could last well into November.

The CPC is forecasting our winter months of November through January to have equal chances of being average, above average, or below average regarding temperatures. Their seasonal predictions are based on global-scale circulations like the El Nino/Southern Oscillation, and there are many flavors of weather possible based on those patterns alone. So, only time will tell if we really are bypassing autumn completely, or if autumn will try to force its way into early winter.

monthly averages

Chart from usclimatedata.com showing RDU’s average high and low temperatures as well as average precipitation per month.